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‘We now have a bubble in many cities, particularly the big ones'
By Geoff Dyer 2010-02-23
Chenggong may still be largely empty but it is already attracting the attention of property speculators.
At one of the town's many estate agents, a Mr Xin is eyeing up new apartments. Originally from Wenzhou, the east coast city that is synonymous in China with free-wheeling capitalism, he already owns eight flats at a compound called Huilan Yuan, which had in theory been set aside for civil servants moving to the town, but he is interested in more. “I think it is a good idea to invest now before the property prices in Chenggong start to rocket,” says Mr Xin.
If there is one big idea to come out of the financial crisis, it is that monetary authorities should try to anticipate asset price bubbles, especially in property. China is now a test-case for the theory, given strong indications that the property market is getting close to bubble territory.
Hoarding empty flats in the hope of price rises is one indicator, but there are others. According to Standard Chartered, the average land price in China increased by 106 per cent last year. That includes an increase of more than 200 per cent in Shanghai, nearly 400 per cent in Guangzhou and 876 per cent in Wenzhou. “We believe we now have a bubble in many cities, particularly the big ones,” says Stephen Green, economist at the UK-based international bank.
Prices of land and property are central to the economy's prospects. Not only is real estate investment a significant driver of growth in gross domestic product but land sales are a vital source of revenue for local governments and they provide the financial backing for a large part of China's infrastructure investment. So while the Chinese authorities cannot allow the market to become too frothy, they equally cannot afford a sharp drop in prices, which could also cause a great deal of collateral damage in the economy.
As a result, Beijing is trying gently to slow the market. Tight controls over the financial system give it more levers than are available to regulators in other countries. The authorities now require a 40 per cent downpayment on mortgages for a second home and developers sitting on unused land face tougher penalties. Informally, banks have been urged to scale back lending to some developers.
Some local markets are still buzzing. In the southern China island of Hainan, a property rush in the first few weeks of the year sent prices up 18 per cent and by more than 50 per cent for some buildings. But there are reports that transactions in several of China's biggest cities slowed last month, which could be the precursor for a more orderly market. Beijing will certainly be hoping so.
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中国房地产市场泡沫
作者：英国《金融时报》 杰夫·代尔 2010-02-23
呈贡的大部分房子或许还空着，但已经开始吸引房地产投机商的注意。
在当地为数众多的房地产中介机构之一，辛先生正关注着新房。他来自于东部沿海城市温州——在中国，温州成了自由资本主义的代名词——已经在一处名为惠兰园的楼盘拥有8套公寓，但还想多买几套。理论上，惠兰园是专门留给迁至呈贡的公务员居住的。“我认为，现在趁呈贡房价还没开始飙升之前投资是个好主意，”辛先生表示。
如果说金融危机给出了什么重大教训，那就是：货币当局应设法预见到资产价格泡沫，尤其房地产领域。鉴于目前有明显的迹象显示，中国的房地产市场正逐渐接近泡沫水平，中国已成为上述理论的一个范例。
标志之一是人们大量囤积空房，希望房价能上涨，但还有其它一些迹象。英国渣打银行(Standard Chartered)表示，去年中国土地均价上涨了106%。其中上海上涨逾200%，广州上涨近400%，温州上涨876%。渣打经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示：“我们认为，目前许多城市都存在泡沫，特别是大城市。”
地价和房价对于中国经济未来的前景至关重要。这不仅是因为房地产投资是国内生产总值(GDP)增长的一个重要驱动因素，还因为卖地是地方政府收入的一大重要来源，也为中国很大一部分基础设施建设投资提供了财政支持。因此，尽管中国有关部门不能听任市场出现过多泡沫，但他们同样承担不起房价暴跌的后果——这也可能给经济造成大量的附带损害。
因此，北京方面正小心尝试为市场降温。中国对金融体系的严格管控，使得中国政府比其它国家监管部门拥有更多的武器。中国相关部门目前规定，二套房首付比例不得低于40%，而“捂地”的开发商将面临更严厉的惩罚。当局私下里要求银行缩减对某些开发商的放贷规模。
一些地方的市场仍呈现出一片繁盛景象。在中国南部的海南岛，房价在年初几周的房地产热潮中上涨了18%，一些楼盘甚至上涨50%以上。但也有报告显示，上月，中国一些最大城市的房屋交易量有所下降，这或许预示着市场会变得更加规范。中国政府当然希望如此。
译者/何黎
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(来源：老牌的英语学习网站 http://www.EnglishCN.com)