Taking a break from the serious gambling 在认真赌博之时小憩片刻 (来源：英语杂志 http://www.EnglishCN.com)

But even that sort of growth, if not followed by more of the same, does little to justify current prices and there are any number of reasons to be pessimistic. Exports, a core component of the Chinese economy, remain soft. Critical demand has come from a huge government stimulus plan that, by design, is transient. 即便是这些类型的增长，如果后续没有出现同样的增长跟上，现在的股价也很难站得住脚。而且，还有很多让人悲观的理由。出口是中国经济的核心组成部分，仍然疲软。关键的需求是来自于政府有意实施的巨额刺激计划，而这只是短暂的。

Of even greater concern is that much of the market’s strength may be the result of the abundant money sloshing around China, rather than a fundamental change in profit expectations. This would help explain why companies with dual listings in Hong Kong and the mainland have seen disproportionately large rises in their mainland shares. 更甚的忧虑是担心股市上涨的力量可能更多的是中国流动性泛滥的结果，而不是盈利预期发生了根本性的转变。这或许可以帮忙解释一个问题，那就是为什么同时在香港市场和大陆市场上市的公司，两地股价出现了不协调的增长幅度，大陆市场股价上涨大幅超过香港市场。

 One source of this liquidity is individuals, usually responsible for about three-quarters of all share purchases in China. Capital restrictions limit investment options to bank deposits (at low, government-mandated, rates), property, or the stockmarket. That the vertiginous rise in mainland share prices accompanied a decline in the rate of growth for money in longer-term time deposits suggests small investors may have shifted from the safety of banks to riskier market punts. 流动性的一个来源是个人，这通常归因于中国股市上四分之三的股票都是在国内购买。资本管制将投资者的投资选择限定在了三个选择上：银行存款（由政府法定的低利率）、不动产、股市。在大陆股价涨得令人眩晕的同时，中长期定期存款的增长率出现了下滑，这表明小投资者可能已经将投资阵地从安全性好的银行转到了更高风险的股票投机市场。

More controversially, there is widespread speculation that the tidal wave of bank lending initiated by the government as part of its stimulus plan has made its way into the stockmarket. The proportion of loans going into shares is hotly debated (see article). Executives at Chinese firms and the chastened survivors of other Asian stockmarket collapses worry that despite government restrictions lending trickles into the market indirectly. 更具争议性的是，目前有一个普遍的猜测，认为由政府发起的作为刺激计划的一部分的银行借贷潮已经涌入了股市。关于流入股市的信贷比例问题，目前正在激烈地争论着。中国公司的高管们和经历过亚洲其他股市崩溃磨练过的幸存者们担心，即便是有政府诸多限制，信贷还是会如涓涓细流般的间接流入股市。

Redirecting bank loans is typically a violation of credit agreements, but the main impact of such rules is likely to ensure any diversion is not reported. Recently rumours have circulated that the People’s Bank of China has initiated investigations to determine if these claims have merit—a move which, by itself, may have put a damper on the market. 重新调整银行信贷流向是典型的违反贷款协定的规定，然而这类规则主要的作用很可能是保证任何转向都不被报道。最近，市场传言中国中央银行已经展开调查，来确定这些主张是否有可取之处，央行自身的这一动向可能已经对市场产生了压制作用。

Equally jarring, after an extraordinary lending binge, the country’s leading banks are abruptly pulling back on credit expansion, a move that could affect the funds available for investment in the stockmarket, and indirectly undermine the market by reducing the near-term prospects for growth. Rumours are rife that banks’ capital requirements are being tightened, as are the conditions for various kinds of loan. A decline in new lending in the second half of the year had been expected; the rate of decline has, for many, been a shock. As share prices rose earlier in the year, numerous private companies and their bankers began the lengthy process of preparing for public offerings. In June debt was abundant and there was every reason to expect equity would soon be as well. Such confidence is now frayed. 同样不和谐的是，经过一场特别的放贷狂欢之后，中国的主要银行突然开始撤离信贷扩张的阵地。这一举动既可能影响可用于投资到股市的资金，也可能会通过降低短期增长前景而削弱市场根基。谣言盛行，作为各类贷款的条件，银行的资本金要求正在被收紧。下半年新增贷款出现下滑早已被预期到，但对很多人来说，下滑的速度让人震惊。随着今年年初股市上涨，许多私人公司和他们的投资方也开始了准备公开上市的漫长过程。六月份，市场上的债务充沛，有充分的理由相信不久后股票也会如此。这样的信心如今正在磨损。

 China’s mainland market has come a long way since its relaunch almost 20 years ago in an old hotel on the Bund in Shanghai. It is now the world’s second-largest on most measures, but a second speculative bubble in three years raises real questions about its credibility. The job of a stockmarket is to provide useful signals to help allocate capital. However thrilling, China’s market is a long way from doing that. 自从大约20年前在上海外滩一家老饭店里重新启动以来，中国大陆的股市已经走过了一段漫长的路程。如今，中国股市在大多数方面都已经是世界第二大，但也是第二个在三年内会使人们对其信誉度产生问题的投机泡沫。股市的职责是提供有用的信号，以帮助配置资本。无论多么让人激动，中国股市距离这一目标还有很长的路要走。